Before deciding to trade Forex or any other financial instrument you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Support at 39.00 USD looks attractive, but if punctured lower WTI could retest the juncture of 38.00 USD if weakness develops. December looks like it may be a promising speculative bullish month for crude oil. padding: 10px; } .text310 span{ However, it is near major support. } David Fessler | October 9, 2019. In the end everyone knows that the Dollar is inversely correlated to crude oil. Any revision in our forecast are published in the public domain and appear in our free newsletter. Brent crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the International Commodities Exchange (ICE), which extends seven years into the future. Crude oil is not one of them according to our analysis though it will become bullish at a certain point. The answer may be a combination of all the listed factors. Please make sure your comments are appropriate and that they do not promote services or products, political parties, This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data. Price target in 14 days: 51.017 USD. Forecast of Crude Oil Price (WTI) Below is a forecast of light, sweet crude oil prices that is based on prior values of both WTI and Brent crude oil prices, global oil production and consumption, crude oil inventories, currency exchange rates, and other commodity prices. Those are the ones we want to forecast and be invested in. As we figured out both fundamental economic data as well as supply demand data are useless as leading indicators for our crude oil price forecast for 2020, 2021 or any other year. WTI crude oil forecast for 2023 – We can expect crude oil prices to drop below the $ 60 resistance level, in order to complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to $ 40.72. According to the oil price projection provided by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the prices of Brent Crude will average at $34 per barrel in 2020 and $48 per barrel in 2021. } }. We have to rely on the chart patterns that we find on crude’s long and medium term timeframes. Any reasonable person would say that supply and demand was way out of synch, and this would have caused the price of crude to crash. We can continue for a while, with Accenture’s crude oil report or CNN data, … but the point is clear in the meantime. Second, the crude oil chart itself. Brent crude oil is expected to trade at 48.63 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. The Euro may start rising at 3 price levels. display: flex; .advbox { -ms-flex-direction: column; Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - … background: #000000; line-height: 18px; .left310 { line-height: 24px !important; background: rgb(19,19,21); Nobody was able to forecast the crude oil price crash purely based on supply demand data. line-height: 15px; -webkit-flex-direction: column; order: 1; This perception may attract more bullish action during the month of December. .content310 { … flex-direction: row; Their forecast was that economic conditions were supportive of a higher crude oil price. The data we have (Euro charts and crude charts) need to be analyzed thoroughly. Crude fell some 75% in less than 18 months. A well balanced market is what the OPEC wrote, and then a few months later one of the biggest crude oil crashes in history of mankind started. WTI Crude Oil began November retesting lows but in the past three weeks has managed to break through resistance levels with a flourish. } padding: 5px; Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year Becomes InvestingHaven’s Mission, Neutral to bearish, start of a bullish spike, Within its wide range, Euro neutral to bearish but starts bullish breakout, Neutral with bullish spike, followed by heavy retracement, Euro breaks out, crude to the top of its range, Wide range $40-70: buy at $40 and sell at $60. Nor did the OPEC, a global reference in the oil market, in their June 2014 crude oil report. Many investors tend to stick to facts from the past. And as investors we are ONLY interested in big moves, not the peanuts. An additional signal in favor of the growth of quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the rising trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). We turn our attention to the 2nd data point we use as an input for our crude oil forecast. Price Drivers: Economic rebound, USD correlation, market sentiment Price: $ $60-$65. padding: 10px 10px 10px; The only reliable leading indicator is to be found in intermarket dynamics, the main theme of InvestingHaven’s research method. background: none repeat scroll 0 0 white; Crude oil weekly forecast ANALYSIS ... Oil – Crude Oil Inventories. This means we have to carefully analyze the Euro chart carefully, very carefully. justify-content: space-around; The Euro chart has a much more reliable setup in terms of chart pattern(s) to help forecast. Oil price charts for Brent Crude, WTI & oil futures. In other words we conclude that supply demand is useless in forecasting the big moves in crude oil. background: linear-gradient(180deg, rgba(19,19,21,1) 32%, rgba(159,55,44,1) 90%); Prices plummeted in the second quarter, with one day in April even closing at $9/b for Brent prices internationally and -$37/b for WTI at Cushing in the U.S. The commodity has put in a flurry of gains the past three weeks, but it is still below its stronger March trading values as they beckon their targets to speculative forces within the marketplace. ... Venezuela’s 2020 Oil … As per legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller: The mistake 98% of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they have got to be playing with a bunch of of stuff. } So no, supply demand is not a reliable factor in forecasting the crude oil price for 2020, 2021 nor any other year! campaign material or ballot propositions. .left310 { right: 11px; After the breakdown of crude in 2018 we conclude that this market is in no-man’s land. } While we do our utmost to ensure that all our data is up-to-date, we encourage you to verify our information with the broker directly. Brent crude oil - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on December of 2020. However, the Euro falling below 105 would mean that both the Euro and crude would fall further, with support in the 96 to 98 area on the Euro. Right now the Euro is not bullish, it is trending down. Once that happens it will send bullish energy to crude oil. font-size: 22px !important; Brent Crude Oil Forecast and analysis December 8, 2020. In other words quality is much more important than quantity when it comes to forecast the future direction of crude oil. text-align: center; Therefore, the only way to track the pulse of markets and stay tuned with our forecasts is to subscribe to our free newsletter >>, Taki has +15 years of experience in global markets. margin: 0px auto; font-size: 18px !important; .advbox>strong:first-child { But sticking to that one fact implies you will miss a lot of opportunities just because you did choose to wait for that one asset to move. .text310{ Note that all our forecasts are analyzed and written by InvestingHaven’s research team, not by other analysts, in a simple to understand forecasting framework. For investors all that matters is when crude turns bullish. A significant amount of more optimism within the global markets may have to occur for that to take place, but if investors remain optimistic, push equity indices higher and have a firm belief that international commerce will improve long term, this could set off more speculative buying of the commodity. Certainly, crude oil could see downside pressure develop, and it is a certainty that reversals lower will occur. That’s why readers should follow our 2021 forecasts thoroughly. Not anyone (!) } .button310 span{ Brent Crude as it is predicted that prices could average $39.05 in Q3, according to a poll. If these marks are broken higher, speculative forces may begin to believe WTI crude oil has the capability to challenge the 50.00 mark. position: absolute; Below this, the market is likely to go after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 29.40. We want to go back to the year 2014. You heard this very well, hardly any leading indicator to forecast the future price of crude oil. ... 8 days Natural Gas Prices Plunge 10% On Extremely Bearish Weather Forecast. Has the recent announcement of John Kerry as the envoy of Biden’s climate change team also added fuel to the notion that the White House will crack down on the shale industry? Note that this happened when crude oil’s long term trend was about to break down. Brent Oil Forecast: Q4 2020: Brent Oil Forecast: 1 Year: Brent Oil Forecast: 3 Years: Price: $43-$47. } The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), publisher of the 2014 global energy report, did not refer to anything like a market imbalance! Not likely to happen though. But why don’t we look for the Dollar chart instead of the Euro? We turn things around. So we can reasonably expect a certain point in the next decade to see a breakout above $120. As WTI crude oil tests highs it has not ventured in since March, price values for the commodity may begin to target higher resistance levels. High price 52.48, low 46.82. font-size: 14px; So the most reasonable forecast we can do for the Euro is that it will stop falling in 2020. This may start in 2020, but will likely morph into something more ‘tangible’ in 2021. So the conclusion we derive from this chart, and mapping it to the crude chart, is that major moves happen in conjunction with major moves within Euro’s chart pattern. .right310 img { display: inline-flex; WTI Crude Oil Outlook for December: Speculative price range for WTI crude il is 39.30 to 53.85 USD. Even though we do not expect a big move in crude oil as per our 2020 forecast we still are on the lookout for a low probability bullish spike. color: #c0c0c0; color: #ffffff; Many investing tips and crypto market analysis. An additional signal in favor of the growth of quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the rising trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). We continuously, throughout the year, publish updates on our annual forecasts. The horizontal bars are the ones that have an additional meaning. Speculative price range for WTI crude il is 39.30 to 53.85 USD. And if you really see it, put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket very carefully. In general a rising Euro is bullish for crude’s price. In Q4, Brent Crude might even climb above $40 to reach $44.08. .right310 { In that scenario crude would become a strong buy! box-sizing: border-box; The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. font-weight: bold !important; Certainly, a quantified value on WTI crude oil’s price based on how the far environmental mandates will impact the industry is conjecture at best before any mandates are suggested and authorized. height: auto; Twitter: twitter.com/investinghaven. Oil prices started strong this year at $64/b in January. Before the US presidetial election, the commodity began to touch lows not traded since late May when WTI crude oil traded near 35.50 USD. Either after the Euro has fallen to 105 points. } Let’s go back to the previous point about supply demand factors and the fact they are not useful for our crude oil price forecast. .text310 span{ 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025; 53.2: 56.9: 60.8: 65: 69.4: 74.1: 79.2: 84.6: 90.4: 96.7: 103.4 .banner310 { In 2020, global oil demand is expected to contract for the first time since the global recession of 2009. } .button310 span { a positive signal for a rebound in the global economy in the second half of the year, Overall, the ongoing rise in supply would be adequate to satisfy the growth in oil demand in 2H14, resulting in a well-balanced market, In other words we conclude that supply demand is useless in forecasting the big moves in crude oil. So then how is it possible to do a reliable forecast? Resistance around 41.70 USD looks significant, but if prices rise on political developments speculative quick spikes … The chart patterns we see on this chart are pretty simple: 1 rising channel (last decade) and two triangle patterns (current decade). } Christopher Lewis Dec 11, 2020 05:43 PM GMT max-width: 2000px; A price of 53.00 USD for crude oil is not far-fetched; in fact, it sounds and looks much more viable via technical charts than a strong drawdown through support levels below the 42.00 USD mark. position: relative; Read on to understand what to look for before getting exposure to the crude oil market. Crude oil price forecast 2020: U.S. Energy Information Administration: $57/b by Q2 of 2020: Crude oil price forecast 2020: Marketwatch notes several analysts: $100/b in 2020: Crude oil price forecast 2020 (no other predictions published so far) (no other predictions published so far) Support at 42.90 USD appears adequate, but if taken lower, crude oil could technically perhaps find a way to test 39.30 USD. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. On the contrary. Moreover, inventories in the US – the only OECD country with positive demand growth – stand at high levels. As seen on below chart, our leading indicator for global markets, the EURO peaked at its major secular resistance right before the crude oil price crash started. Prices reflect crude's spot price. Thursday EU ... is likely to wrap up its final policy review meeting of 2020 with no fireworks on Friday. 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