In this base case, we assume that although the virus is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter, the number of cases rises in many other countries. A price of $40/bbl would cause LTO output to decline from 2021, and fall by 1.1 mb/d to 2025, compared with growth of 2.2 mb/d in our base case. In 2020, global oil demand is expected to contract for the first time since the global recession of 2009. It overtook Black Sea ports sending out Russian and Caspian crude, and Nigeria. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. Improved efficiency standards and increased penetration of electric vehicles sees demand growth stall. Refiners, nevertheless, continue to build much more capacity than what is needed to meet product demand. Brazil, Guyana, Iraq and the UAE also deliver impressive gains. Oil 2020 looks at the interplay between the expanding US influence in global oil supply and the demand from Asia for exports from the Middle East. As for OPEC, even though sanctions and economic distress have wiped out 2.5 mb/d of production from Iran and Venezuela since 2017, effective crude oil capacity rises by 1.2 mb/d to 34.1 mb/d. Heavier oil products are used to make asphalt and lubricating oils such as petroleum. Petrochemical feedstocks LPG/ethane and naphtha will drive around half of all oil products demand growth, helped by continued rising plastics demand and cheap natural gas liquids in North America. In this case, oil demand in China suffers the most in the first quarter, with a year-on-year fall of 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d). The United States consumes about 19.69 million barrels of oil per day, which is more than the entire European Union. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its 2020 and 2021 outlook for oil demand. Despite having the smallest population of the three, the United States has the highest consumption. The impact of clean energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years. To construct a base case for oil demand in 2020, this report draws on a wide range of data sources, including initial data for transport fuel demand, the most affected sector, and recently revised global GDP estimates by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Refining capacity additions in recent years have outstripped demand growth, bringing tough competition for an industry already challenged by tightening product specifications, most notably the new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) bunker rules introduced at the beginning of 2020. The increase reflects OPEC's announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 mb/d. Following a difficult start in 2020 (-90 kb/d) due to the coronavirus, growth rebounds to 2.1 mb/d in 2021 and decelerates to 800 kb/d by 2025 as transport fuels demand growth stagnates. Bans imposed on single-use plastics and recycling, even if fully implemented, will displace only a very modest amount of oil demand. Oil Consumption by Country (2020) Examination of the oil consumption commitment of countries. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO 2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 mb/d. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 12 cents, or 0.25%, higher at $48.52 per barrel. That's down by 8.8 million b/d from 2019. Oil rises on hopes of demand picking up 30 December 2020 - 07:48 Naveen Thukral A liquefied natural gas tanker at a port of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation in Tianjin, China. In 2019 the US Gulf Coast became the largest seaborne crude oil export hub outside the Middle East, supplying 2.6 mb/d to world markets. It is estimated that the world consumes over 97 million barrels of oil per day. For U.S. companies, it was the equivalent of 18% of proven reserves. As a result, world oil demand is now expected to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day in 2020, compared to last year. Even before the coronavirus, markets had been over-supplied, leading OPEC+ producers to cut output. A progressive recovery takes place through the second half of 2020. Against a background of collapsing global oil demand, OPEC+ producers met on 6 March to review the market situation. Venezuela currently has the largest oil reserves in the world. In a decarbonising world, refiners face a big challenge from weaker transport fuel demand. Global demand drops by 2.5 mb/d. In our base case, that assumes $60/bbl Brent, growth is expected to grind to a halt in the early 2020s and production will plateau around 20 mb/d – 2.5 mb/d higher than in 2019. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. Colombia, the UK, Russia, Egypt, Nigeria and Angola post the biggest declines. Oil advances on U.S. inventory draw, but demand fears weigh Published Tue, Dec 29 2020 11:09 PM EST Updated Wed, Dec 30 2020 3:25 PM EST An aerial drone view of a crude oil … In addition, the lack of demand for oil resulted in cargoes being stuck at destination ports, … Global oil demand is expected to continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 … In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. Based on the above, global oil demand will be back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 if not slightly earlier. Rystad Energy is forecasting that oil demand will decrease 10.9 percent, or 10.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year over year in 2020. While ensuring it is able to continue to meet growing demand, it must also address the need to curb emissions and improve sustainability. This is followed by China, which consumes 11.75 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 12% of total consumption, and India, which consumes about 4.49 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.6% of consumption. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. Non-OPEC supply will rise by 4.5 mb/d while OPEC builds another 1.4 mb/d of crude and natural gas liquids capacity. On the supply side, geopolitics remain a wild card. As US growth plateaus, Middle East producers step up to supply the required incremental barrels. For 2021, OPEC sees demand rising by 6.3 million b/d on an annual basis, lower than the 6.5 million it estimated last month and the 7.0 million it estimated in July 2020. Through 2025, global oil demand rises by a total of 5.7 mb/d, with China and India accounting for about half of growth. Alaska, Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are the largest oil-producing states in the U.S. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels a day compared with 2019. Some of the smallest consumers of crude oil are Niue at 60 barrels per day, Saint Helena at 80 barrels per day, the Falkland Islands at 300 barrels per day, and Nauru and Kiribati, which both consume about 400 barrels per day. The majority of crude oil produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oils. Crude oil produces many beneficial products that have improved the quality of life for people around the world. Global oil demand is being destroyed as the coronavirus forces people around the world to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary travel. The prediction, which sees oil demand … Oil remains the lifeblood of any war effort today and drives many components of the modern military complex including aircraft, vehicles, warships, small arms, and general industry. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. The impacts vary by fuel. On the last trading day of 2020, Brent fell 49 cents, or 1%, to $51.14 a barrel. These countries are: All other countries account for about 40% of the world’s total oil consumption. Oil demand in 2020 is expected to fall by 8.1 mb/d, the largest in history, before recovering by 5.7 mb/d in 2021. “This represents a sharp decline of nearly 10 million b/d from where … At the same time, global energy transitions are affecting the oil industry: companies must balance the investments needed to ensure sufficient supplies against the necessity of cutting emissions. In the first half of 2020, when oil demand suddenly vanished in the pandemic, the industry wrote down a fresh $170 billion. All three of these countries have the three largest populations in the world. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. Global oil demand will grow by 5.7 mb/d over the 2019-25 period at an average annual rate of 950 kb/d. As a consequence, Asian oil import requirements in 2025 surpass 31 mb/d. The EIA estimates global oil and liquid fuels demand will be 92.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. The arrival of the coronavirus is rattling a global oil market that was already facing challenges. Thank you for subscribing. The situation remains very fluid, however, making it extremely difficult to assess the full impact of the virus. From 2022, the US loses steam allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn up the taps to help keep the oil market in balance. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021. In its monthly report, OPEC pegged 2020 oil demand at 89.99 million barrels a day, a decline of 9.77 million barrels a day from 2019 and slightly below its previous estimate. This is a sharp reduction on the 1.5 mb/d annual pace seen in the past 10-year period. The oil market will suffer a long-lasting blow from the coronavirus, with demand taking years to recover and peaking at a lower level, the International Energy Agency said. The International Energy Agency expects crude oil demand this year to be 8.1 million bpd lower than it was in 2019. Global oil demand is rebounding after hitting a trough last month as ongoing strong consumption in Asia and Latin America, coupled with a recovery in … Oil demand for 2020 seen as 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from last month. Oil imports will be coming from places further away, increasing voyage duration and inherently limiting flexibility when dealing with emergencies. In 2018, the United States became the largest producer of crude oil, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia, producing about 12.1 million barrels per day. In the second quarter, an improving situation in China offsets deteriorating demand elsewhere. Total non-OPEC oil supply rises by 4.5 mb/d to reach 69.5 mb/d by 2025. During the medium-term, the US Gulf Coast will solidify its position as the largest seaborne export hub outside the Middle East, adding another 2 mb/d to seaborne crude oil exports. Global oil supply looks comfortable through the forecast period. The world’s proven reserves are equivalent to about 46.6 times its annual consumption levels, meaning that the Earth has about 47 years of oil left at the current consumption levels. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … Crude oil is the main source of energy globally. Other non-OPEC producers, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, increase exports too. Global attention is increasingly focused on the need to accelerate clean energy transitions in order to mitigate the risks of climate change. Here are the 10 countries with the highest oil consumption: The World Factbook Refined Petroleum Products - Consumption. Petrochemicals become an ever more important driver, with naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane responsible for half of all growth. The United States, China, and India alone account for over a third of the world’s total oil consumption. According to the organization, the pandemic’s negative effect on … All major Asian economies are heavily dependent on oil imports. Brazil, Guyana, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also deliver impressive gains. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. These nations have notably smaller populations and fewer vehicles and planes that require larger amounts of crude oil. Global oil demand rebounds in 2021 and Asia accounts for 77% of oil demand growth through 2025. Global oil supply fell by 2.4 million bpd in June to a 9-year low of 86.9 million bpd. IEA (2020), Oil 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020. The deceleration in US and other non-OPEC growth from 2022 will allow OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn up the taps to help keep the oil market in balance, thereby increasing their importance for oil consuming countries. This is about 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. The top ten consumers of oil account for 60% of the world’s total oil consumption. The pace of expansion in the United States is slowing as independent producers cut spending and scale back drilling activity in response to pressure from investors. Brazil’s surge in oil demand is a welcome development for a global market that’s been forced to push back expectations for when energy demand might get back to pre-virus levels. The International Energy Agency cut its 2020 global oil demand forecast again on Tuesday, as rising cases of COVID-19 suggest economic recovery will be … Due to its fast ramp-up and rapid decline, US light tight oil (LTO) production is more responsive to a change in the oil price than conventional sources of supply. With uncertainties over demand, supply, investment strategies and business models, the global oil industry faces major challenges. Oil demand growth slows because demand for diesel and gasoline nears a plateau as new efficiency standards are applied to internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles hit the market. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels a day compared with 2019. The International Energy Agency said in an outlook Thursday it expects global oil demand to decline by 8.6 million barrels a day for 2020, a drop fueled by the coronavirus crisis. For 2020, OPEC predicts total oil demand will be slashed by nearly 10% — nowhere near the large-scale pivot away from fossil fuels that scientists say is necessary to fight climate change. Production losses from Iran, Libya and Venezuela have reached a combined 3.5 mb/d since the start of 2018. Nevertheless, investors continue to ratchet up pressure on the industry to sharpen its focus on sustainability issues while activists, especially in Europe and North America, seek to hinder new oil developments. At the same time, oil production in the region declines. Asian countries will need to work individually and collectively to enhance oil supply security. This assumes that there is no change to sanctions on Iran or Venezuela. The United States leads the way as the largest source of new supply. “Our OPEC outlook for 2020 oil demand is now slightly above 90 million bpd. In 2018, the world used approximately 99.3 million barrels of oil per day. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. Gasoline demand sees a sharp slowdown over our forecast period with growth reduced from the 2.5 mb/d seen in the previous six year period to just 500 kb/d over the 2019-25 period. Gains in supply are heavily front-loaded, however, and robust non-OPEC growth through 2021 suggests that there is likely to be a role for OPEC+ market management during the first part of the period. The projection, contained in OPEC's closely watched monthly oil market report, follows the International Energy Agency's analysis released Monday that forecast a contraction in global demand for 2020 of 90,000 b/d -- which would be the first shrinkage in consumption since the financial crisis in 2009. Crude oil is extracted and undergoes distillation to break down the liquid into various products. “The oil futures curve flip into contango in March 2020 made it profitable for traders to purchase relatively cheap crude barrels to store at sea, in order to sell forward. Coronavirus lockdowns in Europe and weakening consumption in the Americas will result in global oil demand taking a larger hit in 2020 than previously expected, the Organization of … There is an estimated 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). That's down by 0.23 million bpd from the previous month's estimate. On the demand side, growth in 2019 was significantly weaker than expected and new vehicle efficiency measures have started to weigh on transport fuels. Recent price volatility could have a major impact on US production. These alternatives are outlined in the March edition of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report, which is released in tandem with this medium-term report. Given its huge resource potential, it could produce even more if prices end up higher than assumed in this report. Oil reserves denote the amount of crude oil located in a particular region that can be recovered using current technological constraints and at a cost that is feasible at the current oil prices. OPEC downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand growth to 0.99 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020. But growth in non-OPEC production is set to lose momentum after a few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries. Current oversupply and the impact of COVID-19 on demand should not be a reason for complacency when it comes to security of supply. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has added a major layer of uncertainty to the oil market outlook at the start of the forecast period covered by this report. The International Energy Agency, in a forecast that already looks dated, said on March 9 that 2020 oil demand would contract by about 90,000 barrels a day. With its major emissions footprint, the energy sector – including the oil and gas industry – is at the heart of the matter. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Strong growth in Asian oil demand is creating major opportunities for oil producing countries that can boost exports. Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. The US leads the way as the largest source of new supply. Crude oil is a mineral consisting of a mixture of hydrocarbons of natural origin, ranging from yellow to black, and of variable density and viscosity. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, global oil demand growth is set to weaken as consumption of transport fuels increases more slowly. The world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 mb/d by 2025, which more than covers growth in demand. Following a record increase of more than 2.2 mb/d in 2018, the pace of the US expansion slowed to 1.6 mb/d last year as independent producers cut spending and scaled back drilling activity. Global oil demand is expected to continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, constricting traveling and economic activity. At the time of publication, the high uncertainty over the course of the global epidemic has led us to propose two alternatives to our base case for demand in 2020: a more pessimistic one in which global measures are less successful in containing the virus, and an optimistic case in which it is contained quickly. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is set to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and as electric vehicles increase in popularity. Reduced jet and kerosene deliveries will impact total oil demand until at least 2022. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. 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